Event-based storylines to address climate risk

Sillmann, J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, van den Hurk, B., Hazeleger, W., Martius, O., Slingo, J. and Zscheischler, J. (2021) Event-based storylines to address climate risk. Earth's Future, 9 (2). ISSN 2328-4277 doi: 10.1029/2020EF001783

Abstract/Summary

The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model-based probabilistic climate change projections. Event-based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress-testing” for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event-based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/94766
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2020EF001783
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Wiley
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