An adaptive group sequential design for phase II/III clinical trials that select a single treatment from several

Kelly, P.J., Stallard, N. and Todd, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9981-923X (2005) An adaptive group sequential design for phase II/III clinical trials that select a single treatment from several. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 15 (4). pp. 641-658. ISSN 1054-3406 doi: 10.1081/BIP-200062857

Abstract/Summary

There is increasing interest in combining Phases II and III of clinical development into a single trial in which one of a small number of competing experimental treatments is ultimately selected and where a valid comparison is made between this treatment and the control treatment. Such a trial usually proceeds in stages, with the least promising experimental treatments dropped as soon as possible. In this paper we present a highly flexible design that uses adaptive group sequential methodology to monitor an order statistic. By using this approach, it is possible to design a trial which can have any number of stages, begins with any number of experimental treatments, and permits any number of these to continue at any stage. The test statistic used is based upon efficient scores, so the method can be easily applied to binary, ordinal, failure time, or normally distributed outcomes. The method is illustrated with an example, and simulations are conducted to investigate its type I error rate and power under a range of scenarios.