Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts

Richardson, D. S., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2020) Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (11). e2020GL087934. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2020GL087934

Abstract/Summary

An expected benefit of ensemble forecasts is that a sequence of consecutive forecasts valid for the same time will be more consistent than an equivalent sequence of individual forecasts. Inconsistent (jumpy) forecasts can cause users to lose confidence in the forecasting system. We present a first systematic, objective evaluation of the consistency of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble using a measure of forecast divergence that takes account of the full ensemble distribution. Focusing on forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation and European Blocking regimes up to two weeks ahead, we identify occasional large inconsistency between successive runs, with the largest jumps tending to occur at 7-9 days lead. However, care is needed in the interpretation of ensemble jumpiness. An apparent clear flip-flop in a single index may hide a more complex predictability issue which may be better understood by examining the ensemble evolution in phase space.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/90485
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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