Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions

Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Liu, Z., Samset, B. H., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Lund, M. T., Nordling, K., Undorf, S., Bollasina, M., Ekman, A. M. L., Krishnan, S., Merikanto, J. and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2020) Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20 (20). pp. 11955-11977. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: 10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020

Abstract/Summary

There is large uncertainty in future aerosol emissions scenarios explored in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs), with plausible pathways spanning a range of possibilities from large global reductions in emissions to 2050 to mod-erate global increases over the same period. Diversity in emissions across the pathways is particularly large over Asia. Rapid anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emission reductions between the present day and the 2050s lead to enhanced increases inglobal and Asian summer monsoon precipitation relative to scenarios with weak air quality policies. However, the effects of aerosol reductions don’t persist in precipitation to the end of the 21st century, when response to greenhouse gases dominatesdifferences across the SSPs. The relative magnitude and spatial distribution of aerosol changes is particularly important for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes. Precipitation increases here are initially suppressed in SSPs 2-4.5 and5-8.5 relative to SSP 1-1.9 and 3-7.0 when the impact of East Asian emission decreases is counteracted by that due to continuedincreases in South Asian emissions.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/88827
Identification Number/DOI	10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020
Refereed	No
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Copernicus Publications
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