Reduced variability in range-edge butterfly populations over three decades of climate warming

Oliver, T. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4169-7313, Roy, D. B., Brereton, T. and Thomas, J. A. (2012) Reduced variability in range-edge butterfly populations over three decades of climate warming. Global Change Biology, 18 (5). pp. 1531-1539. ISSN 1365-2486 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02659.x

Abstract/Summary

Populations at the high latitude edge of species’ geographical ranges are thought to show larger interannual population fluctuations, with subsequent higher local extinction risk, than those within the ‘core’ climatic range. As climate envelopes shift northward under climate warming, however, we would expect populations to show dampened variability. We test this hypothesis using annual abundance indices from 19 butterfly species across 79 British monitoring sites between 1976 and 2009, a period of climatic warming. We found that populations in the latter (warmer) half of the recording period show reduced interannual population variability. Species with more southerly European distributions showed the greatest dampening in population variability over time. Our results suggest that increases in population variability occur towards climatic range boundaries. British sites, previously existing at the margins of suitable climate space, now appear to fall closer to the core climatic range for many butterfly species.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/84175
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Life Sciences > School of Biological Sciences > Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Publisher	Wiley-Blackwell
Download/View statistics	View download statistics for this item