Increased importance of methane reduction for a 1.5 degree target

Downloads

Allen M R, Shine K P, Fuglestvedt J S, Millar R, Frame D J and Macey A H 2017 Quantifying the impact of climate change agreements covering cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants. Nature Geosciences Submitted Arora V K, Boer G J, Friedlingstein P, Eby M, Jones C D, Christian J R, Bonan G, Bopp L, Brovkin V, Cadule P, Hajima T, Ilyina T, Lindsay K, Tjiputra J F and Wu T 2013 Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth system models Journal of Climate Calvin K, Bond-Lamberty B, Clarke L, Edmonds J, Eom J, Hartin C, Kim S, Kyle P, Link R, Moss R, McJeon H, Patel P, Smith S, Waldhoff S and Wise M 2017 The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 42 284-96 Clark D, Mercado L, Sitch S, Jones C, Gedney N, Best M, Pryor M, Rooney G, Essery R, Blyth E, Boucher O, Harding R, Huntingford C and Cox P 2011 The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description - Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics Geoscientific Model Development 4 701-22 Collins W J, Fry M M, Yu H, Fuglestvedt J S, Shindell D T and West J J 2013 Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13 2471-85 Collins W J, Sitch S and Boucher O 2010 How vegetation impacts affect climate metrics for ozone precursors Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 115 D23308 Comyn-Platt E, Hayman G, Huntingford C, Chadburn S, Burke E, Harper A, Collins W, Webber C, Powell T, Cox P, Gedney N and Sitch S 2018 Natural methane release feedback influence on CO2 profiles to achieve stabilisation Nature Geoscience Submitted Cox P and Jeffery H 2010 Methane radiative forcing controls the allowable CO2 emissions for climate stabilization Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2 404-8 Etminan M, Myhre G, Highwood E and Shine K 2016 Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing Geophysical Research Letters 43 12614-23 Gasser T, Peters G P, Fuglestvedt J S, Collins W J, Shindell D T and Ciais P 2017 Accounting for the climate-carbon feedback in emission metrics Earth System Dynamics 8 235-53 Gernaat D, Calvin K, Lucas P, Luderer G, Otto S, Rao S, Strefler J and van Vuuren D 2015 Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 33 142-53 Harper A, Cox P, Powell T, Huntingford C, Comyn-Platt E, Sitch S, Lenton T, House J, Robertson E, Wiltshire A, Doelman J, van Vuuren D, Hayman G, Chadburn S, Burke E, Collins W and Webber C 2017 Relative effectiveness of BECCS and forest conservation in stabilising climate at 1.5 ° C Nature Communications submitted Huntingford C, Booth B, Sitch S, Gedney N, Lowe J, Liddicoat S, Mercado L, Best M, Weedon G, Fisher R, Lomas M, Good P, Zelazowski P, Everitt A, Spessa A and Jones C 2010 IMOGEN: an intermediate complexity model to evaluate terrestrial impacts of a changing climate Geoscientific Model Development 3 679-87 Huntingford C, Cox P, Mercado L, Sitch S, Bellouin N, Boucher O and Gedney N 2011 Highly contrasting effects of different climate forcing agents on terrestrial ecosystem services Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 369 2026-37 Huntingford C, Yang H, Harper A, Cox P M, Gedney N, Burke E J, Lowe J A, Hayman G, Collins W J, Smith S M and Comyn-Platt E 2017 Flexible parameter-sparse global temperature time profiles that stabilise at 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C Earth System Dynamics 8 617-26 Joos F, Bruno M, Fink R, Siegenthaler U, Stocker T F and LeQuere C 1996 An efficient and accurate representation of complex oceanic and biospheric models of anthropogenic carbon uptake Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology 48 397-417 MacDougall A H, Eby M and Weaver A J 2013 If Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions Cease, Will Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Continue to Increase? Journal of Climate 26 9563-76 Meinshausen M, Wigley T and Raper S 2011 Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6-Part 2: Applications Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11 1457-71 Millar R J, Fuglestvedt J S, Friedlingstein P, Rogelj J, Grubb M J, Matthews H D, Skeie R B, Forster P M, Frame D J and Allen A R 2017 Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C Nature Geoscience 10 741-+ Morice C P, Kennedy J J, Rayner N A and Jones P D 2012 Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 117 Myhre G, Highwood E J, Shine K P and Stordal F 1998 New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases Geophysical Research Letters 25 2715-8 Myhre G, Shindell D, Breon F M, Collins W, Fuglestvedt J, Huang J, Koch D, Lamarque J F, Lee D, Mendoza B, Nakajima T, Robock A, Stephens G L, Takemura T and Zhang H 2013 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contributionof Working Group I to the Firth Assessment Report of the Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change, ed T Stocker, et al. (Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press) pp 659-740 O'Neill B, Kriegler E, Ebi K, Kemp-Benedict E, Riahi K, Rothman D, van Ruijven B, van Vuuren D, Birkmann J, Kok K, Levy M and Solecki W 2017 The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 42 169-80 Pachauri R K, Allen M R, Barros V R, Broome J, Cramer W, Christ R, Church J A, Clarke L, Dahe Q, Dasgupta P, Dubash N K, Edenhofer O, Elgizouli I, Field C B, Forster P, Friedlingstein P, Fuglestvedt J, Gomez-Echeverri L, Hallegatte S, Hegerl G, Howden M, Jiang K, Jimenez Cisneroz B, Kattsov V, Lee H, Mach K J, Marotzke J, Mastrandrea M D, Meyer L, Minx J, Mulugetta Y, O'Brien K, Oppenheimer M, Pereira J J, Pichs-Madruga R, Plattner G-K, Pörtner H-O, Power S B, Preston B, Ravindranath N H, Reisinger A, Riahi K, Rusticucci M, Scholes R, Seyboth K, Sokona Y, Stavins R, Stocker T F, Tschakert P, van Vuuren D and van Ypserle J-P 2014 Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC) Riahi K, van Vuuren D, Kriegler E, Edmonds J, O'Neill B, Fujimori S, Bauer N, Calvin K, Dellink R, Fricko O, Lutz W, Popp A, Cuaresma J, Samir K, Leimbach M, Jiang L, Kram T, Rao S, Emmerling J, Ebi K, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Humpenoder F, da Silva L, Smith S, Stehfest E, Bosetti V, Eom J, Gernaat D, Masui T, Rogelj J, Strefler J, Drouet L, Krey V, Luderer G, Harmsen M, Takahashi K, Baumstark L, Doelman J, Kainuma M, Klimont Z, Marangoni G, Lotze-Campen H, Obersteiner M, Tabeau A and Tavoni M 2017 The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 42 153-68 Rogelj J, Luderer G, Pietzcker R, Kriegler E, Schaeffer M, Krey V and Riahi K 2015a Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 degrees C Nature Climate Change 5 519-+ Rogelj J, Meinshausen M, Schaeffer M, Knutti R and Riahi K 2015b Impact of short-lived non-CO2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming Environmental Research Letters 10 Shindell D T, Fuglestvedt J S and Collins W J 2017 The social cost of methane: theory and applications Faraday Discussions 200 429-51 Sitch S, Cox P M, Collins W J and Huntingford C 2007 Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink Nature 448 791-U4 Sitch S, Huntingford C, Gedney N, Levy P, Lomas M, Piao S, Betts R, Ciais P, Cox P, Friedlingstein P, Jones C, Prentice I and Woodward F 2008 Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) Global Change Biology 14 2015-39 Smith P 2016 Soil carbon sequestration and biochar as negative emission technologies Global Change Biology 22 1315-24 Stohl A, Aamaas B, Amann M, Baker L H, Bellouin N, Berntsen T K, Boucher O, Cherian R, Collins W, Daskalakis N, Dusinska M, Eckhardt S, Fuglestvedt J S, Harju M, Heyes C, Hodnebrog O, Hao J, Im U, Kanakidou M, Klimont Z, Kupiainen K, Law K S, Lund M T, Maas R, MacIntosh C R, Myhre G, Myriokefalitakis S, Olivie D, Quaas J, Quennehen B, Raut J-C, Rumbold S T, Samset B H, Schulz M, Seland O, Shine K P, Skeie R B, Wang S, Yttri K E and Zhu T 2015 Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 15 10529-66 Taylor K E, Balaji V, Hankin S, Juckes M, Lawrence B and Pascoe S 2013 CMIP5 data reference syntax (DRS) and controlled vocabularies van Vuuren D, Stehfest E, Gernaat D, Doelman J, Van den Berg M, Harmsen M, de Boer H, Bouwman L, Daioglou V, Edelenbosch O, Girod B, Kram T, Lassaletta L, Lucas P, van Meijl H, Muller C, van Ruijven B, van der Sluis S and Tabeau A 2017 Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 42 237-50 West J J, Fiore A M and Horowitz L W 2012 Scenarios of methane emission reductions to 2030: abatement costs and co-benefits to ozone air quality and human mortality Climatic Change 114 441-61