An empirical model of issue evolution and partisan realignment in a multiparty system

Arndt, C. (2018) An empirical model of issue evolution and partisan realignment in a multiparty system. Political Research Quarterly, 71 (1). pp. 59-74. ISSN 1938-274X doi: 10.1177/1065912917722234

Abstract/Summary

Since Carmines and Stimson’s seminal work, the concept of issue evolution has become a common theoretical toolkit to examine and explain polarization around cultural issues and partisan realignment in the United States. However, very few studies outside the United States have applied the concept of issue evolution to explain electoral change and realignment around new issues at national elections over time. Analyzing whether and how Carmines and Stimson’s concept travels to electoral change in a multiparty system would provide more theoretical leverage and create empirical knowledge on the logic of issue evolution outside the United States and also whether the logic of electoral change differs from U.S.-style two-party systems. This article applies the issue evolution concept to a multidimensional multiparty system using micro-level data from 1971 to 2011 in combination with data on elite-level polarization to demonstrate that partisan realignment in Denmark follows an issue evolution process with niche parties as main drivers. Moreover, niche party polarization on the new dimension of conflict has a stronger effect on vote choice than mainstream party polarization.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/72607
Identification Number/DOI	10.1177/1065912917722234
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	No Reading authors. Back catalogue items
Publisher	Sage
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