Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change

Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Yiou, P., Hauser, M., Lott, F. C., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Colfescu, I., Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Hegerl, G., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2018) Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change. Climate Dynamics, 50 (9-10). pp. 3537-3555. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3822-7

Abstract/Summary

Summer 2012 was very wet in northern Europe, and unusually dry and hot in southern Europe. We use multiple approaches to determine whether anthropogenic forcing made the extreme European summer of 2012 more likely. Using a number of observation- and model-based methods, we find that there was an anthropogenic contribution to the extremes in southern Europe, with a qualitative consensus across all methodologies. There was a consensus across the methodologies that there has been a significant increase in the risk of hot summers in southern Europe with climate change. Most approaches also suggested a slight drying, but none of the results were statistically significant. The unusually wet summer in northern Europe was made more likely by the observed atmospheric circulation pattern in 2012, but no evidence was found for a long-term trend in circulation.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/71765
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Springer
Download/View statistics	View download statistics for this item