A comparison of model ensembles for attributing 2012 West African rainfall

Downloads

Ackerley D, Booth B B, Knight S H, Highwood E J, Frame D J, Allen M R and Rowell D P 2011 Sensitivity of twentieth-century Sahel rainfall to sulfate aerosol and CO2 forcing J. Climate 24 4999-5014 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00019.1 ACMAD 2012 Flood report over West Africa- September 2012 Available online at: http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/FloodreportoverWestAfrica.pdf [Accessed 5th May 2016] Allen M R 2003 Liability for climate change Nature 421 891−892 doi: 10.1038/421891a Arora V K, Scinocca J F, Boer G J, Christian J R, Denman K L, Flato G M, Kharin V V, Lee W G and Merryfield W J 2011 Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 L05805 doi:10.1029/2010GL046270. Bader J and Latif M 2003 The impact of decadal‐scale Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the North Atlantic Oscillation Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 2169 doi: 10.1029/2003GL018426, 22. Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Rudolf B, Schamm K, Schneider U and Ziese M 2013 A description of the global land-surface precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre with sample applications including centennial (trend) analysis from 1901 to present Earth Syst. Sci. Data 5 71-99 doi:10.5194/essd-5-71-2013, 2013. Bellprat O, Lott F C, Gulizia C, Parker H R, Pampuch L A, Pinto I, Ciavarella A and Stott P A 2015 Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective Weather and Climate Extremes 9 36-46 doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2015.07.001 Bentsen M et al. 2013 The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate Geosci. Model Dev. 6 687–720 doi:10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013 Biasutti M 2013 Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres 118 1613-23 doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50206 Biasutti M, Held I M, Sobel A H and Giannini A 2008 SST forcings and Sahel rainfall variability in simulations of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries J. Climate 21 3471–86 doi: 10.1175/2007JCLI1896.1 Chang P, Ji L and Li H 1997 A decadal climate variation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from thermodynamic air-sea interactions Nature 385 516–18 doi: 10.1038/385516a0 Christidis N and Stott P A 2014 Change in the Odds of Warm Years and Seasons Due to Anthropogenic Influence on the Climate J. Climate 27 2607–21 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00563.1. Christidis N, Stott P A, Scaife A, Arribas A, Jones G S, Copsey D, Knight J R and Tennant W J 2013 A new HadGEM3-A-based system for attribution of weather and climate-related extreme events J. Climate 26 2756–83. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00169.1. Cornforth R J 2013 West African Monsoon 2012 Weather 68 256-63 doi: 10.1002/wea.2161 Dai A, Lamb P J, Trenberth K E, Hulme M, Jones P D and Xie P 2004 The recent Sahel drought is real Int. J. Climatol. 24 1323–31 doi:10.1002/joc.1083 Dong B and Sutton R 2015 Dominant role of greenhouse-gas forcing in the recovery of Sahel rainfall Nature Clim. Change 5 757-60 doi: 10.1038/nclimate2664 Dong B-W, Sutton R, Highwood E and Wilcox L 2014 The impacts of European and Asian anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions on Sahel rainfall J. Climate 27 7000-17 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00769.1 Donlon C J, Martin M, Stark J D, Roberts-Jones J, Fiedler E and Wimmer W 2011 The Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice analysis (OSTIA) Remote Sens. Environ. 116 140-58 doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2010.10.017 Druyan L M 2011 Studies of 21st-century precipitation trends over West Africa Int. J. Climatol. 31 1415-1572 doi:10.1002/joc.2180. Dufresne J-L et al. 2013 Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 Clim. Dyn. 40 2123-65 doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1 Enfield D B, Mestas-Nunez A M, Mayer D A and Cid-Serrano L 1999 How ubiquitous is the dipole relationship in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures? J. Geophys. Res. 104 7841–48 doi: 10.1029/1998JC900109 Giannini A 2015 Climate change comes to the Sahel Nature Clim. Change 5 720-21 doi: 10.1038/nclimate2739 Giannini A, Salack S, Lodoun T, Ali A, Gaye A T and Ndiaye O 2013 A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, interannual and longer time scales Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024010 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024010 Giannini A, Saravanan R and Chang P 2003 Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales Science 302 1027-30 doi: 10.1126/science.1089357 Hansen G, Auffhammer M and Solow A R 2014 On the Attribution of a Single Event to Climate Change J. Climate 27 8297-8301 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00399.1 Herring S C, Hoerling M P, Kossin J P, Peterson TC and Stott P A, Eds. 2015 Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 96 S1–S172 Husak G J, Michaelsen J and Funk C 2007 Use of the gamma distribution to represent monthly rainfall in Africa for drought monitoring applications Int. J. Climatol. 27 935–944 doi: 10.1002/joc.1441 IRIN 2012 After the drought, floods - and harvest worries Available online at: http://www.irinnews.org/news/2012/09/14. [Accessed 5th May 2016] James R, Otto F, Parker H, Boyd E, Cornforth R, Mitchell D and Allen M 2014 Characterizing loss and damage from climate change Nature Clim. Change 4 938-9 doi: 10.1038/nclimate2411 Jones C D et al. 2011 The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations Geosci. Model Dev. 4 543-70 doi: 10.5194/gmd-4-543-2011 King A D, Lewis S C, Perkins S E, Alexander L V, Donat M G, Karoly D J and Black M T 2013 Limited evidence of anthropogenic influence on the 2011–12 extreme rainfall over southeast Australia in explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94 S55–58 Lewis S C and Karoly D J 2015 Are estimates of anthropogenic and natural influences on Australia’s extreme 2010–2012 rainfall model-dependent? Climate Dynamics 45 679-95 doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2283-5 Lott F C, Christidis N and Stott P A 2013 Can the 2011 East African drought be attributed to human‐induced climate change? Geophys. Res. Lett. 40 1177-81 doi: 10.1002/grl.50235 Lott F C and Stott P A 2016 Evaluating simulated fraction of attributable risk using climate observations J. Climate doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0566.1 in press. Massey N, Jones R, Otto F E L, Aina T, Wilson S, Murphy J M, Hassell D, Yamazaki Y H and Allen M R 2015 weather@home—development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 141 1528–45 doi: 10.1002/qj.2455 Miller R L et al. 2014 CMIP5 historical simulations (1850–2012) with GISS ModelE2 J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst.6 441–477 doi:10.1002/2013MS000266 Mitchell D, Davini P, Harvey B, Massey N, Haustein K, Woollings T, Jones R, Otto F, Guillod B, Sparrow S, Wallom D and Allen M 2016 Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in event attribution systems Clim.Dyn. submitted OCHA 2012 Overview: Impacts of floods: West and Central Africa Available online at: http://reliefweb.int/map/niger/overview-impact-floods-west-and-central-africa-15-september-2012. [Accessed 5th May 2016] Otto F E L, Boyd E, Jones R G, Cornforth R J, James R, Parker H R and Allen M R 2015 Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications Clim. Change 132 531-43 doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1432-0 Otto F E, Jones R G, Halladay K and Allen M R 2013 Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. B 368 20120299 doi: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0299 Rayner N A, Parker D E, Horton E B, Folland C K, Alexander L V, Rowell D P, Kent E C and Kaplan A 2003 Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century J. Geophys. Res. (Atmos.) 108 4407 doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670 Rodríguez-Fonseca B E et al. 2015 Variability and predictability of West African droughts: A review of the role of sea surface temperature anomalies J. Climate 28 4034-60 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00130.1 Rotstayn L D, Jeffrey S J, Collier M A, Dravitzki S M, Hirst A C, Syktus J I and Wong K K 2012 Aerosol- and greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12 6377-6404 doi:10.5194/acp-12-6377-2012, 2012. Rowell D P 2013 Simulating SST teleconnections to Africa: What is the state of the art? J. Climate 26 5397-5418 doi: 0.1175/JCLI-D-12-00761.1 Rowell D P, Senior C A, Vellinga M and Graham R J 2016 Can climate projection uncertainty be constrained over Africa using metrics of contemporary performance? Clim. Change 134 621-33 doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1554-4. Saji NH, Goswami B N, Vinayachandran P N and Yamagata T 1999 A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean Nature 401 360–63 Sanford T, Frumhoff P C, Luers A and Gulledge J 2014 The climate policy narrative for a dangerously warming world Nature Clim. Change 4 164–166 doi:10.1038/nclimate2148 Skinner C B, Ashfaq M and Diffenbaugh N S 2012 Influence of twenty-first-century atmospheric and sea surface temperature forcing on West African climate J. Climate 25 527–42 doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4183.1 Stott P A, Stone D A and Allen M R 2004 Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 Nature 432 610-14 doi:10.1038/nature03089 Taylor K E, Stouffer R J and Meehl G A 2012 An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 93 485–98 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1 Trenberth K E 1997 The Definition of El Niño Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78 2771–77 Voldoire et al. 2013 The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation Clim. Dyn. 40 2091-2121 doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1259-y Wolski P, Stone D, Tadross M, Wehner M and Hewitson B 2014 Attribution of floods in the Okavango basin, Southern Africa J. Hydrol. 511 350-58 doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.055 Xin X-G, Wu T-W, Li J-L, Wang Z-Z, Li W-P and Wu F-H 2013 How Well does BCC_CSM1.1 Reproduce the 20th Century Climate Change over China? Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 6 21-26 doi: 10.1080/16742834.2013.11447053