HESS Opinions ``Ensembles, uncertainty and flood prediction''

Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Zou, Q. P. (2010) HESS Opinions ``Ensembles, uncertainty and flood prediction''. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 7 (3). pp. 3591-3611. ISSN 1812-2116 doi: 10.5194/hessd-7-3591-2010

Abstract/Summary

Ensemble predictions are being used more frequently to model the propagation of uncertainty through complex, coupled meteorological, hydrological and coastal models, with the goal of better characterising flood risk. In this paper, we consider the issues that we judge to be important when designing and evaluating ensemble predictions, and make recommendations for the guidance of future research.