Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate

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Parker, H. R., Boyd, E., Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, James, R., Frederike, O. and Myles, A. (2017) Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate. Climate Policy, 17 (4). pp. 533-550. ISSN 1469-3062 doi: 10.1080/14693062.2015.1124750

Abstract/Summary

In 2013 the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change impacts was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For scientists, L&D raises ques- tions around the extent that such impacts can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which may generate complex results and be controversial in the policy arena. This is particularly true in the case of probabilistic event attribution (PEA) science, a new and rapidly evolving field that assesses whether changes in the probabilities of extreme events are attributable to GHG emissions. If the potential applications of PEA are to be considered responsibly, dialogue between scientists and policy makers is fundamental. Two key questions are considered here through a literature review and key stakeholder interviews with representatives from the science and policy sectors underpinning L&D. These provided the opportunity for in-depth insights into stakeholders’ views on firstly, how much is known and understood about PEA by those associated with the L&D debate? Secondly, how might PEA inform L&D and wider climate policy? Results show debate within the climate science community, and limited understanding among other stakeholders, around the sense in which extreme events can be attributed to climate change. However, stake- holders do identify and discuss potential uses for PEA in the WIM and wider policy, but it remains difficult to explore precise applications given the ambiguity surrounding L&D. This implies a need for stakeholders to develop greater understandings of alternative conceptions of L&D and the role of science, and also identify how PEA can best be used to support policy, and address associated challenges.

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Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/51650
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Interdisciplinary Research Centres (IDRCs) > Walker Institute Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Uncontrolled Keywords	adaptation; climate policy; event attribution; loss and damage; probabilities; UNFCCC
Publisher	Taylor & Francis
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Funders:	Natural Environment Research Council	The sponsoring bodies who contributed funding for the creation of this item. Example: NERC Example: The Royal Society of Chemistry A pick list of funders may appear as you type in the funder's name in full or as an acronym. Select a correct match to complete the field or type in a new entry in full. For new entries, the full name is preferred.
Projects:	Attributing impacts of external climate drivers on extreme weather in Africa Funded by: Natural Environment Research Council (NE/K005472/1 - £131,205) Local Lead (PI): Rosalind Cornforth Project Lead: Rosalind Jane Cornforth 30 June 2013 - 28 February 2017	Click Add to select your project (received at Reading) from an autocomplete list.

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Date Deposited:	13 Jan 2016 12:40	Date item deposited into CentAUR
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