Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Ballesteros-Pérez, P., Skitmore, M., Pellicer, E. and Gutiérrez-Bahamondes, J. H. (2016) Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions. International Journal of Project Management, 34 (2). pp. 158-172. ISSN 0263-7863 doi: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.11.001

Abstract/Summary

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders' bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder's probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/51068
Identification Number/DOI	10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.11.001
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of the Built Environment
Publisher	Elsevier
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