Climate change, glacier retreat, and water availability in the Caucasus region

Shahgedanova, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2320-3885, Hagg, W., Hassell, D., Stokes, C. R. and Popovnin, V. (2009) Climate change, glacier retreat, and water availability in the Caucasus region. In: Jones, J. A. A., Vardanian , T. G. and Hakopian, C. (eds.) Threats to global water security. NATO science for peace and security series C: environmental security . Springer, pp. 131-143. ISBN 9789048123445 doi: 10.1007/978-90-481-2344-5

Abstract/Summary

The paper discusses the observed and projected warming in the Caucasus region and its implications for glacier melt, water availability and potential hazards. A strong positive trend in summer air temperatures of 0.05 degrees C year(-1) is observed in the high-altitude areas (above 2000 m) providing for a strong glacier melt. A widespread glacier retreat has also been reported between 1985 and 2000, with an average rate of 8 m year(-1). A warming of 5-7 degrees C is projected for the Sum mer months in the 2071-2100 period under the A2 emission group of scenarios, Suggesting that enhanced glacier melt and a changing water balance can be expected.