Rationality and momentum in real estate investment forecasts

Papastamos, D., Mouzakis, F. and Stevenson, S., (2014) Rationality and momentum in real estate investment forecasts. Working Papers in Real Estate & Planning. 07/14. Working Paper. University of Reading, Reading. pp34.

Abstract/Summary

This study examines the rationality and momentum in forecasts for rental, capital value and total returns for the real estate investment market in the United Kingdom. In order to investigate if forecasters are affected by the general economic conditions present at the time of forecast we incorporate into the analysis Gross Domestic Product(GDP) and the Default Spread (DS). The empirical findings show high levels of momentum in the forecasts, with highly persistent forecast errors. The results also indicate that forecasters are affected by adverse conditions. This is consistent with the finding that they tend to exhibit greater forecast error when the property market is underperforming and vice-versa.

Item Type	Report (Working Paper)
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/36851
Item Type	Report
Divisions	Henley Business School > Real Estate and Planning
Publisher	University of Reading
Publisher Statement	The copyright of each working paper remains with the author(s). In some cases a more recent version of the paper may have been published elsewhere, please contact the appropriate author for further details.
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