Forecasting models of retail rents

Brooks, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2668-1153 and Tsolacos, S. (2000) Forecasting models of retail rents. Environment and Planning A, 32 (10). pp. 1825-1839. ISSN 0308-518X doi: 10.1068/a3332

Abstract/Summary

The authors model retail rents in the United Kingdom with use of vector-autoregressive and time-series models. Two retail rent series are used, compiled by LaSalle Investment Management and CB Hillier Parker, and the emphasis is on forecasting. The results suggest that the use of the vector-autoregression and time-series models in this paper can pick up important features of the data that are useful for forecasting purposes. The relative forecasting performance of the models appears to be subject to the length of the forecast time-horizon. The results also show that the variables which were appropriate for inclusion in the vector-autoregression systems differ between the two rent series, suggesting that the structure of optimal models for predicting retail rents could be specific to the rent index used. Ex ante forecasts from our time-series suggest that both LaSalle Investment Management and CB Hillier Parker real retail rents will exhibit an annual growth rate above their long-term mean.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/35973
Identification Number/DOI	10.1068/a3332
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Henley Business School > Finance and Accounting
Publisher	Pion
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