The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate

Wilcox, L.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Highwood, E.J. and Dunstone, N.J. (2013) The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (2). 024033. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024033

Abstract/Summary

Analysis of single forcing runs from CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) simulations shows that the mid-twentieth century temperature hiatus, and the coincident decrease in precipitation, is likely to have been influenced strongly by anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Models that include a representation of the indirect effect of aerosol better reproduce inter-decadal variability in historical global-mean near-surface temperatures, particularly the cooling in the 1950s and 1960s, compared to models with representation of the aerosol direct effect only. Models with the indirect effect also show a more pronounced decrease in precipitation during this period, which is in better agreement with observations, and greater inter-decadal variability in the inter-hemispheric temperature difference. This study demonstrates the importance of representing aerosols, and their indirect effects, in general circulation models, and suggests that inter-model diversity in aerosol burden and representation of aerosol–cloud interaction can produce substantial variation in simulations of climate variability on multi decadal timescales.

Additional Information	This article is open access.
Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/32619
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Additional Information	This article is open access.
Publisher	Institute of Physics
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