Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet

Frame, T.H.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6542-2173, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Gray, S.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X and Ambaum, M.H.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6824-8083 (2013) Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (10). pp. 2411-2416. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: 10.1002/grl.50454

Abstract/Summary

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is a major component of the large-scale flow in the northern hemisphere. Here we present evidence from reanalysis and ensemble forecast data for systematic flow-dependent predictability of the jet during northern hemisphere winter (DJF). It is found that when the jet is weakened or split it is both less persistent and less predictable. The lack of predictability manifests itself as the onset of an anomalously large instantaneous rate of spread of ensemble forecast members as the jet becomes weakened. This suggests that as the jet weakens or splits it enters into a state more sensitive to small differences between ensemble forecast members, rather like the sensitive region between the wings of the Lorenz attractor.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/32207
Identification Number/DOI	10.1002/grl.50454
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Wiley on behalf of the American Geophysical Union
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