A ‘Boscastle-type’ quasi-stationary convective system over the UK Southwest Peninsula

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Warren, R., Kirshbaum, D., Plant, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8808-0022 and Lean, H. (2013) A ‘Boscastle-type’ quasi-stationary convective system over the UK Southwest Peninsula. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (678). pp. 240-257. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2124

Abstract/Summary

An investigation is presented of a quasi-stationary convective system (QSCS) which occurred over the UK Southwest Peninsula on 21 July 2010. This system was remarkably similar in its location and structure to one which caused devastating flash flooding in the coastal village of Boscastle, Cornwall on 16 August 2004. However, in the 2010 case rainfall accumulations were around four times smaller and no flooding was recorded. The more extreme nature of the Boscastle case is shown to be related to three factors: (1) higher rain rates, associated with a warmer and moister tropospheric column and deeper convective clouds; (2) a more stationary system, due to slower evolution of the large-scale flow; and (3) distribution of the heaviest precipitation over fewer river catchments. Overall, however, the synoptic setting of the two events was broadly similar, suggesting that such conditions favour the development of QSCSs over the Southwest Peninsula. A numerical simulation of the July 2010 event was performed using a 1.5-km grid length configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. This reveals that convection was repeatedly initiated through lifting of low-level air parcels along a quasi-stationary coastal convergence line. Sensitivity tests are used to show that this convergence line was a sea breeze front which temporarily stalled along the coastline due to the retarding influence of an offshore-directed background wind component. Several deficiencies are noted in the 1.5-km model’s representation of the storm system, including delayed convective initiation; however, significant improvements are observed when the grid length is reduced to 500 m. These result in part from an improved representation of the convergence line, which enhances the associated low-level ascent allowing air parcels to more readily reach their level of free convection. The implications of this finding for forecasting convective precipitation are discussed.

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Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/31009
Identification Number/DOI	10.1002/qj.2124
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Uncontrolled Keywords	heavy precipitation; convergence line; sea breeze; Unified Model
Publisher	Royal Meteorological Society
Publisher Statement	This is a preprint of an article accepted for publication in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Copyright 2013 Royal Meteorological Society.
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Date Deposited:	25 Feb 2013 08:45	Date item deposited into CentAUR
Last Modified:	22 Dec 2024 05:16	Date item last modified

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