Comment on “Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N”

Vecchi, G. A., Msadek, R., Delworth, T. L., Dixon, K. W., Guilyardi, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2255-8625, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Karspeck, A. R., Mignot, J., Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Rosati, A. and Zhang, R. (2012) Comment on “Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N”. Science, 338 (6107). p. 604. ISSN 1095-9203 doi: 10.1126/science.1222566

Abstract/Summary

Matei et al. (Reports, 6 January 2012, p. 76) claim to show skillful multiyear predictions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, these claims are not justified, primarily because the predictions of AMOC transport do not outperform simple reference forecasts based on climatological annual cycles. Accordingly, there is no justification for the “confident” prediction of a stable AMOC through 2014.