Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting

Gallimore, P. and McAllister, P. (2004) Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting. Journal of Property Research, 21 (4). pp. 337-360. ISSN 1466-4453 doi: 10.1080/09599910500163157

Abstract/Summary

In this paper, we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial property markets. The investigation is based on interview surveys with the majority of UK forecast producers, who are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self‐censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in‐house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is significantly more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling, forecasts are mediated and contested within organisations and that impacts can vary considerably across different organizational contexts.