Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts

Baldwin, M. P., Stephenson, D. B., Thompson, D. W.J., Dunkerton, T. J., Charlton, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220 and O'Neill, A. (2003) Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts. Science, 301 (5633). pp. 636-640. ISSN 1095-9203 doi: 10.1126/science.1087143

Abstract/Summary

We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/1561
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Association for the Advancement of Science
Download/View statistics	View download statistics for this item