Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations

Maraun, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4076-0456, Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Ossó, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5653-4886 and Jury, M. (2025) Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations. Nature Communications, 16. 734. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-56109-0

Abstract/Summary

The most disastrous heatwaves are very extreme events with return periods of hundreds of years, but traditionally, climate research has focussed on moderate extreme events occurring every couple of years or even several times within a year. Here, we use three Earth System Model large ensembles to assess whether very extreme heat events respond differently to global warming than moderate extreme events. We find that the warming signal of very extreme heat can be amplified or dampened substantially compared to moderate extremes. This modulation is detectable already in mid-century projections. In the mid-latitudes, it can be explained by changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling during the hottest day of the year. The changes depend on the interplay of present soil moisture and coupling during heat events as well as projected precipitation changes. This mechanism is robust across models, albeit with large spatial uncertainties. Our findings are highly relevant for climate risk assessments and adaptation planning.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/120584
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Nature Publishing Group
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