High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X, Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Toumi, R. (2025) High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8 (1). 32. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: 10.1038/s41612-025-00919-y

Abstract/Summary

The UK Met Office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 shows skill in predicting the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and TC track density over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the decadal timescale (up to ACC = 0.93 and ACC = 0.83, respectively, as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient—ACC). The high skill in predicting the number of TCs is related to the simulation of the externally forced response, with internal climate variability also allowing the improvement in prediction skill. The Skill is due to the model’s ability to predict the temporal evolution of surface temperature and vertical wind shear over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean. We apply a signal-to-noise calibration framework and show that DePreSys4 predicts an increase in the number of TCs over the eastern Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the next decade (2023–2030), potentially leading to high economic losses.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/120411
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Nature Publishing Group
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