Drivers of cold frontal hourly extreme precipitation: a climatological study over Europe

Schaffer, A., Lichtenegger, T., Truhetz, H., Ossó, A., Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Maraun, D. (2024) Drivers of cold frontal hourly extreme precipitation: a climatological study over Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (20). e2024GL111025. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: 10.1029/2024gl111025

Abstract/Summary

In the mid-latitudes extreme precipitation events are strongly associated with cold fronts. By exploring drivers across different scales and relating them to precipitation, we aim to improve our understanding of processes influencing cold frontal extremes. Using hourly ERA5 data over Europe and the North Atlantic, cold fronts are detected and the associated conditions are identified. Quantile regression models are employed to find drivers of frontal precipitation and to quantify these relations. Additionally, we use composites to study the synoptic conditions and meso-scale structure of extreme events. We find that humidity close to the detected fronts, convergence and the low level jet speed contribute most to the formation of extreme precipitation. Synoptic conditions favouring the formation of extreme events are also identified. These results improve our understanding of cold frontal processes leading to precipitation. Additionally, they provide the foundation for a process-based evaluation of frontal dynamics in climate models.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/118752
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2024gl111025
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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