Exploring uncertainty of trends in the North Pacific Jet position

Keel, T., Brierley, C., Edwards, T. and Frame, T. H. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6542-2173 (2024) Exploring uncertainty of trends in the North Pacific Jet position. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (16). e2024GL109500. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: 10.1029/2024GL109500

Abstract/Summary

It has been difficult to establish trends in the observed jet streams, despite modelling studies suggesting they will move polewards in a warming world. While this is partly due to biases between the models and observations, we propose that another uncertainty is rooted in the choice of statistic used to determine the 'jet latitude', one measure used to quantify the jet position. We use seven different jet latitude statistics, four climate reanalysis products, and CMIP6 simulations to assess the relative importance of different uncertainties associated with lower-tropospheric North Pacific Jet (NPJ) trends. Our results show a statistically significant poleward trend in the observed winter NPJ across all reanalyses and using all jet latitude statistics. The magnitude of this trend is most sensitive to the choice of statistic. Furthermore, we find that the NPJ shifts poleward in Autumn under high emission scenarios, which is robust to the choice of jet statistic.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/117842
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2024GL109500
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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