Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects

Douville, H., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Arias, P. A. and Fisher, R. A. (2024) Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects. Science of the Total Environment, 950. 175299. ISSN 1879-1026 doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175299

Abstract/Summary

Large-scale afforestation programmes are generally presented as effective ways of increasing the terrestrial carbon sink while preserving water availability and biodiversity. Yet, a meta-analysis of both numerical and observational studies suggests that further research is needed to support this view. The use of inappropriate concepts (e.g., the biotic pump theory), the poor simulation of key processes (e.g., tree mortality, water use efficiency), and the limited model ability to capture recent observed trends (e.g., increasing water vapour deficit, terrestrial carbon uptake) should all draw our attention to the limitations of available theories and Earth System Models. Observations, either based on remote sensing or on early afforestation initiatives, also suggest potential trade-offs between terrestrial carbon uptake and water availability. There is thus a need to better monitor and physically understand the observed fluctuations of the terrestrial water and carbon cycles to promote suitable nature-based mitigation pathways depending on pre-existing vegetation, scale, as well as baseline and future climates.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/117648
Identification Number/DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175299
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Interdisciplinary Research Centres (IDRCs) > Walker Institute Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO) Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Elsevier
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