Impact of ocean heat transport on sea ice captured by a simple energy balance model

Aylmer, J. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5159-0608, Ferreira, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-9774 and Feltham, D. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X (2024) Impact of ocean heat transport on sea ice captured by a simple energy balance model. Communications Earth & Environment, 5. 406. ISSN 2662-4435 doi: 10.1038/s43247-024-01565-7

Abstract/Summary

Future projections of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice suffer from uncertainties largely associated with inter-model spread. Ocean heat transport has been hypothesised as a source of this uncertainty, based on correlations with sea ice extent across climate models. However, a physical explanation of what sets the sea ice sensitivity to ocean heat transport remains to be uncovered. Here, we derive a simple equation using an idealised energy-balance model that captures the emergent relationship between ocean heat transport and sea ice in climate models. Inter-model spread of Arctic sea ice loss depends strongly on the spread in ocean heat transport, with a sensitivity set by compensation of atmospheric heat transport and radiative feedbacks. Southern Ocean heat transport exhibits a comparatively weak relationship with Antarctic sea ice and plays a passive role secondary to atmospheric heat transport. Our results suggest that addressing ocean model biases will substantially reduce uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/117331
Identification Number/DOI	10.1038/s43247-024-01565-7
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Springer Nature
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