Could an extreme cold Central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?

Sippel, S., Barnes, C., Cadiou, C., Fischer, E., Kew, S., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Philip, S., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Singh, J., Vautard, R. and Yiou, P. (2024) Could an extreme cold Central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? Weather and Climate Dynamics, 5 (3). pp. 943-957. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024

Abstract/Summary

Central European winters have warmed markedly since the mid-20th century. Yet cold winters are still associated with severe societal impacts on energy systems, infrastructure and public health. It is therefore crucial to anticipate storylines of worst-case cold winter conditions, and to understand whether an extremely cold winter, such as the coldest winter in the historical record of Germany in 1963 (−6.3◦C or −3.4σ seasonal DJF temperature anomaly relative to 1981-2010), is still possible in a warming climate. Here, we first show based on multiple attribution methods that a winter of similar circulation conditions to 1963 would still lead to an extreme seasonal cold anomaly of about −4.9 to −4.7◦C (best estimates across methods) under present-day climate. This would rank as the second-coldest winter in the last 75 years. Second, we conceive storylines of worst-case cold winter conditions based on two independent rare event sampling methods (climate model boosting and empirical importance sampling): a winter as cold as 1963 is still physically possible in Central Europe today, albeit very unlikely. While cold winter hazards become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate overall, it remains crucial to anticipate the possibility of an extreme cold winter to avoid potential maladaptation and increased vulnerability.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/117305
Identification Number/DOI	10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	European Geosciences Union
Download/View statistics	View download statistics for this item