Chemistry-albedo feedbacks offset up to a third of forestation’s CO2 removal benefits

Weber, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0643-2026, King, J. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8825-0183, Abraham, N. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3750-3544, Grosvenor, D. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4919-7751, Smith, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Shin, Y. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7235-6127, Lawrence, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4843-4903, Roe, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3821-6435, Beerling, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1869-4314 and Martin, M. V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9715-0504 (2024) Chemistry-albedo feedbacks offset up to a third of forestation’s CO2 removal benefits. Science, 383 (6685). pp. 860-864. ISSN 1095-9203 doi: 10.1126/science.adg6196

Abstract/Summary

Forestation is widely proposed for carbon dioxide (CO2) removal, but its impact on climate through changes to atmospheric composition and surface albedo remains relatively unexplored. We assessed these responses using two Earth system models by comparing a scenario with extensive global forest expansion in suitable regions to other plausible futures. We found that forestation increased aerosol scattering and the greenhouse gases methane and ozone following increased biogenic organic emissions. Additionally, forestation decreased surface albedo, which yielded a positive radiative forcing (i.e., warming). This offset up to a third of the negative forcing from the additional CO2 removal under a 4°C warming scenario. However, when forestation was pursued alongside other strategies that achieve the 2°C Paris Agreement target, the offsetting positive forcing was smaller, highlighting the urgency for simultaneous emission reductions.