Fewer, but more intense, future tropical storms over the Ganges and Mekong basins

Ali, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9846-6751, Fowler, H. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8848-3606, Vanniere, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8600-400X and Roberts, M. J. (2023) Fewer, but more intense, future tropical storms over the Ganges and Mekong basins. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (17). e2023GL104973. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: 10.1029/2023gl104973

Abstract/Summary

Understanding climate change impacts on Tropical Storm (TS) activity is crucial for effective adaptation planning and risk assessment, particularly in densely populated low‐lying delta rivers basins like the Ganges and Mekong. The change to TS characteristics with warming is uncertain due to limitations in global climate model resolution and process‐representation and storm tracking algorithms (trackers). Here, we used 13 HighResMIP models and two trackers to estimate the uncertainty in projections of TS characteristics. We found different trackers producing qualitatively similar but quantitatively different results. Our results show a decline (median ∼52%) in the frequency of TS but increase in the strongest TS and Available Cyclone Energy (ACE) of TS over both basins. The higher‐resolution models extract TS with much higher intensity and ACE values compared to the lower‐resolution models. These results have implications for adaptation planning and risk assessment for TS and suggest the need for further high‐resolution modeling studies.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/113237
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2023gl104973
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
Uncontrolled Keywords	General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics
Publisher	American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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