Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments

Persad, G., Samset, B. H., Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Allen, R. J., Bollasina, M. A., Booth, B. B. B., Bonfils, C., Crocker, T., Joshi, M., Lund, M. T., Marvel, K., Merikanto, J., Nordling, K., Undorf, S., van Vuuren, D. P., Westervelt, D. M. and Zhao, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8300-5872 (2023) Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments. Environmental Research Climate, 2 (3). 032001. ISSN 2752-5295 doi: 10.1088/2752-5295/acd6af

Abstract/Summary

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols’ climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols’ complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society’s ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/112280
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
Publisher	Institute of Physics
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