The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts

Doane-Solomon, R., Befort, D. J., Camp, J., Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Weisheimer, A. (2023) The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts. Atmospheric Science Letters. e1190. ISSN 1530-261X doi: 10.1002/asl.1190

Abstract/Summary

This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed link, its magnitude is overestimated in all forecast models compared to reanalysis. Furthermore, the ENSO-TC relationship in the Caribbean is poorly simulated. It is shown that incorrect forecasting of wind shear appears to affect the representation of the teleconnection in some models, however it is not a completely sufficient explanation for the overestimation of the link.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/111631
Identification Number/DOI	10.1002/asl.1190
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Wiley
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