Equatorial waves as useful precursors to tropical cyclone occurrence and intensification

Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X, Yang, G.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7450-3477, Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 (2023) Equatorial waves as useful precursors to tropical cyclone occurrence and intensification. Nature Communications, 14 (511). ISSN 2041-1723 doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-36055-5

Abstract/Summary

Understanding and prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity on the medium range remains challenging. Here, we find that the pre-existing westward-moving equatorial waves can inform the risk of TC occurrence and intensification, based on a dataset obtained by synchronising objectively identified TCs and equatorial waves in a climate reanalysis. Globally, westward-moving equatorial waves can be precursors to 60–70% of pre-tropical cyclogenesis events, and to >80% of the events with the strongest vorticity, related to the favourable environmental conditions within the pouch of equatorial waves. We further find that when storms are in-phase with westward-moving equatorial waves, the intensification rate of TCs is augmented, whilst in other phases of the waves, storm intensity grows more slowly, or even decays. Coherent wave packets associated with TCs are identifiable up to two weeks ahead. Our findings show that westward-moving equatorial waves can be useful medium-range precursors to TC activity.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/109812
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Nature Publishing Group
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