Predicting the unprecedented: forecasting the June 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave

Emerton, R., Brimicombe, C., Magnusson, L., Roberts, C., Di Napoli, C., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2022) Predicting the unprecedented: forecasting the June 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave. Weather, 77 (8). pp. 272-279. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: 10.1002/wea.4257

Abstract/Summary

In June 2021, an unprecedented extreme heatwave impacted the Pacific Northwest of North America, resulting in more than 1000 excess deaths and affecting infrastructure and wildlife. Predicting such extreme events is key for preparedness and early action, and beyond temperature, it is important to consider biometeorological forecasts, accounting for the effects of the environment on the human body. The performance of ECMWF’s temperature and heat stress (Humidex and the Universal Thermal Climate Index) forecasts during this heatwave is explored, and highlights that several days in advance, an event surpassing the maximum of climatology was predicted with extremely high confidence (100% of ensemble members) – successfully predicting the unprecedented.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/105695
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science Life Sciences > School of Agriculture, Policy and Development > Department of Agri-Food Economics & Marketing Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Wiley
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