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Mauerman, M., Osbahr, H. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0130-2313, Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Osgood, D., Chelwa, G. and Mushinge, B. (2025) Farmers’ knowledge improves identification of drought impacts: A nationwide statistical analysis in Zambia. Climate Services, 38. 100543. ISSN 2405-8807 doi: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100543

Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Ellis, J. and Maidment, R. I. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259 (2024) A computationally lightweight model for ensemble forecasting of environmental hazards: General TAMSAT-ALERT v1.2.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 17 (22). pp. 8353-8372. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024

Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Boult, V. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Hirons, L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 and Woolnough, S. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2024) The potential value of seasonal drought forecasts in the context of climate change: a case study of the African elephant conservation sector. Meteorological Applications, 31 (2). e2190. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: 10.1002/met.2190

Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2024) Global change in agricultural flash drought over the 21st century. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 41 (2). pp. 209-220. ISSN 0256-1530 doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2366-5

Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Maidment, R. I. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Rees, E. and Nderitu, E. (2024) A new drought model for disaster risk management in the Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan provinces of Pakistan. Frontiers in Climate, 6. 1332233. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1332233

Palmer, P. I., Wainwright, C. M. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Dong, B., Maidment, R. I. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Wheeler, K. G., Gedney, N., Hickman, J. E., Madani, N., Folwell, S. S., Abdo, G., Allan, R. P. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Black, E. C. L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Feng, L., Gudoshava, M., Haines, K. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Huntingford, C., Kilavi, M., Lunt, M. F., Shaaban, A. and Turner, A. G. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2023) Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 4. pp. 254-270. ISSN 2662-138X doi: 10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x

Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Asfaw, D. T., Sananka, A., Aston, S., Boult, V. L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469 and Maidment, R. I. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259 (2023) Application of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture forecasts for planting date decision support in Africa. Frontiers in climate, 4. 993511. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: 10.3389/fclim.2022.993511

Mauerman, M., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Boult, V. L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Diro, R., Osgood, D., Greatrex, H. and Chillongo, T. (2022) An information-theoretic approach to reconciling historical climate observations and impacts on agriculture. Weather, Climate, and Society, 14 (4). pp. 1321-1337. ISSN 1948-8327 doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-22-0019.1

Ascott, M. J., Macdonald, D. M. J., Sandwidi, W. J. P., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Verhoef, A. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696, Zongo, G., Tirogo, J. and Cook, P. (2022) Time of emergence of impacts of climate change on groundwater levels in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 612 (A). 128107. ISSN 2214-5818 doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128107

Wainwright, C. M. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Allan, R. P. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2022) Consistent trends in dry spell length in recent observations and future projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (12). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2021GL097231

Cook, P. A., Black, E. C. L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Verhoef, A. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696, Macdonald, D. M. J. and Sorensen, J. P. R. (2022) Projected increases in potential groundwater recharge and reduced evapotranspiration under future climate conditions in West Africa. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 41. 101076. ISSN 2214-5818 doi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101076

Chevuturi, A. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2815-7221, Klingaman, N. P. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Guo, L., Holloway, C. E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989, Guimarães, B. S., Coelho, C. A. S., Kubota, P. Y., Young, M., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Baker, J. C. A. and Vidale, P. L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2022) Subseasonal prediction performance for South American land–atmosphere coupling in extended austral summer. Climate Resilience and Sustainability, 1 (1). e28. ISSN 2692-4587 doi: 10.1002/cli2.28

Boult, V. L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Abdillahi, H. S., Bailey, M., Harris, C., Kilavi, M., Kniveton, D., MacLeod, D., Mwangi, E., Otieno, G., Rees, E., Rowhani, P., Taylor, O. and Todd, M. C. (2022) Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context. Climate Risk Management, 35. 100402. ISSN 2212-0963 doi: 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100402

Wainwright, C. M. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Allan, R. P. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2021) Future changes in wet and dry season characteristics in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22 (9). pp. 2339-2357. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0017.1

de Andrade, F. M., Young, M. P., MacLeod, D., Hirons, L. C. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Woolnough, S. J. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 and Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2021) Subseasonal precipitation prediction for Africa: forecast evaluation and sources of predictability. Weather and Forecasting, 36 (1). pp. 265-284. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0054.1

Wainwright, C. M. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Marsham, J. H., Rowell, D. P., Finney, D. L. and Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2021) Future changes in seasonality in Eastern Africa from regional simulations with explicit and parametrised convection. Journal of Climate, 34 (4). pp. 1367-1385. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0450.1

Wainwright, C. M. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Finney, D. L., Kilavi, M., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Marsham, J. H. (2021) Extreme rainfall in East Africa October 2019 – January 2020 and context under future climate change. Weather, 76 (1). pp. 26-31. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: 10.1002/wea.3824

Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Pinnington, E., Wainwright, C. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Lahive, F., Quaife, T. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Allan, R. P. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Cook, P., Daymond, A. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7597-9423, Hadley, P., McGuire, P. C. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6592-4966, Verhoef, A. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696 and Vidale, P. L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2021) Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (1). 014009. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc3f3

Taylor, J., Nicoll, M. A. C., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Wainwright, C. M. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Jones, C. G., Tatayah, V., Vidale, P. L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 and Norris, K. (2021) Phenological tracking of a seasonal climate window in a recovering tropical island bird species. Climatic Change, 164. 41. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: 10.1007/s10584-021-02971-y

Ascott, M. J., Macdonald, D. M. J., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Verhoef, A. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696, Nakohoun, P., Tirogo, J., Sandwidi, W. J. P., Bliefernicht, J., Sorensen, J. P. R. and Bossa, A. Y. (2020) In-situ observations and lumped parameter model reconstructions reveal intra-annual to multi-decadal variability in groundwater levels in sub-Saharan Africa. Water Resources Research, 56 (12). e2020WR028056. ISSN 0043-1397 doi: 10.1029/2020WR028056

Israelsson, J. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6181-1702, Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Neves, C. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1201-5720, Torgbor, F. F., Greatrex, H., Tanu, M. and Lamptey, P. N. L. (2020) The spatial correlation structure of rainfall at the local scale over southern Ghana. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 31. 100720. ISSN 2214-5818 doi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100720

Braghiere, R. K., Quaife, T. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Ryu, Y., Chen, Q., De Kauwe, M. G. and Baldocchi, D. (2020) Influence of sun zenith angle on canopy clumping and the resulting impacts on photosynthesis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 291. 108065. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108065

Young, M., Heinrich, V., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Asfaw, D. T. (2020) Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (9). ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab94e9

Boult, V. L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Asfaw, D. T., Young, M., Maidment, R. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Mwangi, E., Ambani, M., Waruru, S., Otieno, G., Todd, M. C. and Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2020) Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action. Meteorological Applications, 27 (5). e1959. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: 10.1002/met.1959

Maidment, R. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Greatrex, H. and Young, M. (2020) TAMSAT. In: Levizzani, V., Kidd, C., Kirschbaum, D. B., Kummerow, C. D., Nakamura, K. and Turk, F. J. (eds.) Satellite Precipitation Measurement. Advances in Global Change Research, 1 (67). Springer, pp. 393-407. ISBN 9783030245672 doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-24568-9_22

Cornforth, R. J. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Macdonald, D. M. J., Osbahr, H. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0130-2313, Ciampi, L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1240-7695, Myers, J., Verhoef, A. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696, Black, E. C. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Ascott, M., Cook, P., Davis, H., Clark, H., Talens, C., Gahi, N., Haruna, S. and Petty, E.C., (2019) Possible futures for groundwater in Burkina Faso under a changing climate. Report. Zenodo doi: 10.5281/zenodo.3533108

Braghiere, R. K., Quaife, T. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, He, L. and Chen, J. M. (2019) Underestimation of global photosynthesis in Earth System Models due to representation of vegetation structure. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 33 (11). pp. 1358-1369. ISSN 1944-9224 doi: 10.1029/2018GB006135

Wainwright, C. M. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Marsham, J. H., Keane, R. J., Rowell, D. P., Finney, D. L., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Allan, R. P. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2019) ‘Eastern African paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense long rains. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2. 34. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: 10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7

MacDonald, A. M., Bell, R. A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A. A., Lapworth, D. J., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Calow, R. C. (2019) Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian Highlands. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (9). 095003. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab282f

Maidment, R. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259 and Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, (2019) Using Open Research to mitigate the impact of adverse weather on agriculture in Africa. Open Research Case Studies. Report. University of Reading

Wainwright, C. M. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Hirons, L. C. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Klingaman, N. P. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Allan, R. P. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Turner, A. G. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2019) The impact of air-sea coupling and ocean biases on the seasonal cycle of southern West African precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 53 (11). pp. 7027-7044. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04973-0

Dunning, C. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Allan, R. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2018) Later wet seasons with more intense rainfall over Africa under future climate change. Journal of Climate, 31. pp. 9719-9738. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0102.1

Young, M. P., Chiu, J. C., Williams, C. J. R., Stein, T. H. M. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9215-5397, Stengel, M., Fielding, M. D. and Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2018) Spatio-temporal variability of warm rain events over southern West Africa from geostationary satellite observations for climate monitoring and model evaluation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (716). pp. 2311-2330. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3372

Asfaw, D., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Brown, M., Nicklin, K. J., Otu-Larbi, F., Pinnington, E., Challinor, A., Maidment, R. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259 and Quaife, T. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 (2018) TAMSAT-ALERT v1: a new framework for agricultural decision support. Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (6). pp. 2353-2371. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-11-2353-2018

Pinnington, E., Quaife, T. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2018) Impact of remotely sensed soil moisture and precipitation on soil moisture prediction in a data assimilation system with the JULES land surface model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (4). pp. 2575-2588. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-22-2575-2018

Dunning, C. M. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Allan, R. P. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2017) Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (11). 114001. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa869e

Brown, M., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Asfaw, D. and Otu-Larbi, F. (2017) Monitoring drought in Ghana using TAMSAT-ALERT: a new decision support system. Weather, 72 (7). pp. 201-205. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: 10.1002/wea.3033

Maidment, R. I. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Grimes, D., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Tarnavsky, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Young, M., Greatrex, H., Allan, R. P. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Stein, T. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9215-5397, Nkonde, E., Senkunda, S. and Alcántara, E. M. U. (2017) A new, long-term daily satellite-based rainfall dataset for operational monitoring in Africa. Scientific Data, 4. 170063. ISSN 2052-4463 doi: 10.1038/sdata.2017.63

Barlow, M., Zaitchik, B., Paz, S., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Evans, J. and Hoell, A. (2016) A review of drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. Journal of Climate, 29 (23). pp. 8547-8574. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00692.1

Dunning, C. M. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Black, E. C. L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Allan, R. P. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2016) The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 (19). pp. 11405-11424. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1002/2016JD025428

Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Greatrex, H., Maidment, R. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259 and Young, M. (2016) Incorporating satellite data into weather index-based insurance. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97 (10). ES203-ES206. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0148.1

Balan Sarojini, B., Stott, P. A. and Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2016) Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation. Nature Climate Change, 6 (7). pp. 669-675. ISSN 1758-678X doi: 10.1038/nclimate2976

Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Tarnavsky, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Maidment, R. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Greatrex, H., Mookerjee, A., Quaife, T. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Brown, M. (2016) The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia. Remote Sensing, 8 (4). 342. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs8040342

Zappa, G., Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Brayshaw, D. J. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 (2015) Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics, 45 (7-8). pp. 1727-1738. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8

Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Tarnavsky, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Greatrex, H., Maidment, R. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Mookerjee, A., Quaife, T. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Price, J. (2015) Exploiting satellite-based rainfall for weather index insurance: the challenges of spatial and temporal aggregation. In: First International electronic conference on Remote Sensing, 22 Jun - 5 Jul 2015. doi: 10.3390/ecrs-1-f002 (Vol 1: f002)

Hegerl, G. C., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Allan, R. P. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Ingram, W. J., Polson, D., Trenberth, K. E., Chadwick, R. S., Arkin, P. A., Sarojini, B. B., Becker, A., Dai, A., Durack, P. J., Easterling, D., Fowler, H. J., Kendon, E. J., Huffman, G. J., Liu, C., Marsh, R., New, M., Osborn, T. J., Skliris, N., Stott, P. A., Vidale, P.-L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Wijffels, S. E., Wilcox, L. J. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Willett, K. M. and Zhang, X. (2015) Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (7). pp. 1097-1115. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1

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Black, E. C. L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Brayshaw, D. J. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 and Rambeau, C. M. C. (2010) Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 368 (1931). pp. 5173-5184. ISSN 1364-503X doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0199

Brayshaw, D. J. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Hoskins, B. and Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2010) Some physical drivers of changes in the winter storm tracks over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean during the Holocene. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 368 (1931). pp. 5185-5223. ISSN 1364-503X doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0180

Senapathi, D. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8883-1583, Underwood, F. M., Black, E. C. L. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Nicoll, M. A. C. and Norris, K. J. (2010) Evidence for long-term regional changes in precipitation on the East Coast Mountains in Mauritius. International Journal of Climatology, 30 (8). pp. 1164-1177. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.1953

Diro, G. T., Grimes, D.I.F., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, O'Neill, A. and Pardo-Iguzquiza, E. (2009) Evaluation of reanalysis rainfall estimates over Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology, 29 (1). pp. 67-78. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.1699

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Pezzulli, S., Frederic, P., Majithia, S., Sabbagh, S., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Sutton, R. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Stephenson, D. (2006) The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 22 (2). pp. 113-125. ISSN 1524-1904

Johnson, H., Kovats, R. S., McGregor, G. R., Stedman, J., Gibbs, M., Walton, H., Cook, L. and Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2005) Impact of the 2003 heat wave on mortality and hospital admissions. England Health Statistics Quarterly, 25. pp. 6-11.

Spencer, H. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4553-7082, Sutton, R. T. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Slingo, J. M., Roberts, M. and Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2005) Indian Ocean climate and dipole variability in Hadley Centre coupled GCMs. Journal Of Climate, 18 (13). pp. 2286-2307. ISSN 1520-0442

Diro, G. T., Grimes, D. I. F., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and O'Neill, A., (2005) Validation of area rainfall estimates over North-eastern Africa. Poster presentation. UNSPECIFIED, European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna 24-29 April.

Slingo, J., Spencer, H. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4553-7082, Hoskins, B., Berrisford, P. and Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2005) The meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean, and the influence of the east African highlands. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 363 (1826). pp. 25-42. ISSN 1364-503X doi: 10.1098/rsta.2004.1473

Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2005) The relationship between Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature and east African rainfall. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society Of London Series A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences, 363 (1826). pp. 43-47.

Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Blackburn, M., Harrison, R. G. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0693-347X, Hoskins, B. J. and Methven, J. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 (2004) Factors contributing to the summer 2003 European heatwave. Weather, 59 (8). pp. 217-223. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: 10.1256/wea.74.04

Gissila, T., Black, E. orcid id iconORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Grimes, D. I. F. and Slingo, J. M. (2004) Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains. International Journal Of Climatology, 24 (11). pp. 1345-1358.

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