Progress and challenges of demand-led co-produced sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts in Nigeria

Lawal, K., A., Olaniyan, E., Ishiyaku, I., Hirons, L., C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Thompson, E., Talib, J., Boult, V. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Ogungbenro, S. B., Gbode, E. I., Ajayi, V. O., Okogbue, E. C., Adefisan, E., A., Indasi, V., S., Youds, L., Nkiaka, E., Stone, D. A., Nzekwu, R., Folorunso, O., Oyedepo, J., A., New, M., G. and Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2021) Progress and challenges of demand-led co-produced sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts in Nigeria. Frontiers in climate, 3. 712502. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: 10.3389/fclim.2021.712502

Abstract/Summary

This paper identifies fundamental issues which prevent the effective uptake of climate information services in Nigeria. We propose solutions which involve the extension of short-range (1 to 5 days) forecasts beyond that of medium-range (7 to 15 days) timescales through the operational use of current forecast data as well as improve collaboration and communication with forecast users. Using newly available data to provide seamless operational forecasts from short-term to sub-seasonal timescales, we examine evidence to determine if effective demand-led sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts can be co-produced. This evidence involves: itemization of forecast products delivered to stakeholders, with their development methodology; enumeration of inferences of forecast products and their influences on decisions taken by stakeholders; user-focused discussions of improvements on co-produced products; and the methods of evaluating the performance of the forecast products. We find that extending the production pipeline of short-range forecast timescales beyond the medium-range, such that the medium-range forecast timescales can be fed into existing tools for applying short-range forecasts, assisted in mitigating the risks of sub-seasonal climate variability on socio-economic activities in Nigeria. We also find that enhancing of collaboration and communication channels between the producers and the forecast product users helps to: enhance the development of user-tailored impact-based forecasts; increases users’ trusts in the forecasts; and, seamlessly improves forecast evaluations. In general, these measures lead to more smooth delivery and increase in uptake of climate information services in Nigeria.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/99900
Identification Number/DOI	10.3389/fclim.2021.712502
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Frontiers
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