Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa

Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Thompson, E., Dione, C., Indasi, V. S., Kilavi, M., Nkiaka, E., Talib, J., Visman, E., Adefisan, E. A., de Andrade, F., Ashong, J., Mwesigwa, J. B., Boult, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Diédhiou, T., Konte, O., Gudoshava, M., Kiptum, C., Amoah, R. K., Lamptey, B., Lawal, K. A., Muita, R., Nzekwu, R., Nying'uro, P., Ochieng, W., Olaniyan, E., Opoku, N. K., Endris, H. S., Segele, Z., Igri, P. M., Mwangi, E. and Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2021) Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa. Climate Services, 23. 100246. ISSN 2405-8807 doi: 10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100246

Abstract/Summary

Forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales have huge potential to aid preparedness and disaster risk reduction planning decisions in a variety of sectors. However, realising this potential depends on the provision of reliable information that can be appropriately applied in the decision-making context of users. This study describes the African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) forecasting testbed which brings together researchers, forecast producers and users from a range of African and UK institutions. The forecasting testbed is piloting the provision of real-time, bespoke S2S forecast products to decision-makers in Africa. Drawing on data from the kick-off workshop and initial case study examples, this study critically reflects on the co-production process. Specifically, having direct access to real-time data has allowed user-guided iterations to the spatial scale, timing, visualisation and communication of forecast products to make them more actionable for users. Some key lessons for effective co-production are emerging. First, it is critical to ensure there is sufficient resource to support co-production, especially in the early co-exploration of needs. Second, all the groups in the co-production process require capacity building to effectively work in new knowledge systems. Third, evaluation should be ongoing and combine meteorological verification with decision-makers feedback. Ensuring the sustainability of project-initiated services within the testbed hinges on integrating the knowledge-exchanges between individuals in the co-production process into shaping sustainable pathways for improved operational S2S forecasting within African institutions.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/99641
Identification Number/DOI	10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100246
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Elsevier
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