The fast response of Sahel precipitation to climate change allows effective mitigation action

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Pohl, B. and Gaetani, M. (2021) The fast response of Sahel precipitation to climate change allows effective mitigation action. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4. 24. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: 10.1038/s41612-021-00179-6

Abstract/Summary

Climate change will drive major perturbations of the West African summer monsoon. A zonal contrast in precipitation will develop at the end of the century, with an increase in precipitation over the central Sahel and a decrease in precipitation over the western Sahel. Such a zonal contrast results from the antagonist effects of the fast (due to enhanced radiative warming over land, and over the North Hemisphere, relative to the South Hemisphere) and slow (associated with long-term changes in oceanic circulation) responses of precipitation to increasing greenhouse gases. While such changes have already been assessed, less attention has been given to their temporality, an issue of major importance to promote efficient mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we analyse the future evolution of precipitation changes decomposed into a fast and a slow response, showing that the fast response dominates the slow one. From this evidence, we highlight that mitigation strategies may be successful at reducing the effect of climate change on Sahel precipitation within a few decades, by muting the fast response. This decomposition also allows for a better understanding of the uncertainty of climate model predictions in Africa.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/96826
Identification Number/DOI	10.1038/s41612-021-00179-6
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Nature Publishing Group
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