Operational and emerging capabilities for surface water flood forecasting

Speight, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8700-157X, Cranston, M. D., White, C. J. and Kelly, L. (2021) Operational and emerging capabilities for surface water flood forecasting. WIREs Water, 8 (3). e1517. ISSN 2049-1948 doi: 10.1002/wat2.1517

Abstract/Summary

Surface water (or pluvial) flooding is caused by intense rainfall before it enters rivers or drainage systems. As the climate changes and urban populations grow, the number of people around the world at risk of surface water flooding is increasing. Although it may not be possible to prevent such flooding, reliable and timely flood forecasts can help improve preparedness and recovery. Unlike riverine and coastal flooding where forecasting methods are well established, surface water flood forecasting presents a unique challenge due to the high uncertainties around predicting the location, timing and impact of what are typically localised events. Over the past five years, there has been rapid development of convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models, ensemble forecasting and computational ability. It is now theoretically feasible to develop operational surface water forecasting systems. This paper identifies three approaches to surface water forecasting utilising state of the art meteorological forecasts; empirical based scenarios, hydrological forecasts linked to pre-simulated impact scenarios, and, real-time hydrodynamic simulation. Reviewing operational examples of each approach provides an opportunity to learn from international best practice to develop targeted, impact-based, surface water forecasts to support informed decision-making. Although the emergence of new meteorological and hydrological forecasting capabilities is promising, there remains a scientific limit to the predictability of convective rainfall. To overcome this challenge, we suggest that a re-thinking of the established role of flood forecasting is needed, alongside the development of interdisciplinary solutions for communicating uncertainty and making the best use of all available data to increase preparedness.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/96038
Identification Number/DOI	10.1002/wat2.1517
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Publisher	Wiley
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