Assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology at catchment scale: modelling approach including prediction of future drought events using drought indices

Afzal, M. and Ragab, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2887-7616 (2020) Assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology at catchment scale: modelling approach including prediction of future drought events using drought indices. Applied Water Science, 10 (10). ISSN 2190-5487 doi: 10.1007/s13201-020-01293-1

Abstract/Summary

In this study, the Distributed Catchment-Scale Model, DiCaSM, was used to study the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Eden catchment, north east of Scotland. As a first step, the model was successfully calibrated and validated for a 42 years period. The DiCaSM model was then used to study the impact of climate change on the water availability. Data from the UKCP09 Climate change scenarios for the 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods, considering three gas emission scenarios (low, medium and high), were applied. The results indicated that the greatest decrease in streamflow and groundwater recharge was projected to happen under the high emission scenarios towards the end of the century, i.e. between 2070 and 2099. This would mainly be due to the summers becoming drier. Meanwhile, the projected increase in winter precipitation did not contribute much towards groundwater recharge due the projected increases in evapotranspiration and soil moisture deficit. The following drought indices were calculated and were found to be effective in predicting different types of droughts: the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index, SPEI, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, the modified adjusted RDI, the Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and the Wetness Index, WI. The findings of the study have broader implications in water resources management considering the future changes in climate.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/92897
Identification Number/DOI	10.1007/s13201-020-01293-1
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Publisher	Springer
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