Constraining uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing

Watson-Parris, D., Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559, Deaconu, L., Schutgens, N., Yoshioka, M., Regayre, L. A., Pringle, K. J., Johnson, J. S., Smith, C. J., Carslaw, K. S. and Stier, P. (2020) Constraining uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing. Geophysical Research Letters. e2020GL087141. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2020GL087141

Abstract/Summary

The uncertainty in present-day anthropogenic forcing is dominated by uncertainty in the strength of the contribution from aerosol. Much of the uncertainty in the direct aerosol forcing can be attributed to uncertainty in the anthropogenic fraction of aerosol in the present-day atmosphere, due to a lack of historical observations. Here we present a robust relationship between total present-day aerosol optical depth and the anthropogenic contribution across three multi-model ensembles and a large single-model perturbed parameter ensemble. Using observations of aerosol optical depth, we determine a reduced likely range of the anthropogenic component and hence a reduced uncertainty in the direct forcing of aerosol.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/89916
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2020GL087141
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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