Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model

Reade, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8610-530X, Singleton, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8247-8830 and Vaughan Williams, L. (2020) Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model. Economic Issues, 25 (1). pp. 87-106. ISSN 1363-7029

Abstract/Summary

Using betting odds from two recent seasons of English Premier League football matches, we evaluate probability and point forecasts generated from a standard statistical model of goal scoring. The bookmaker odds show significant evidence of the favourite-longshot bias for exact scorelines, which is not generally present for match results. We find evidence that the scoreline probability forecasts from the model are better than what the odds of bookmakers imply, based on forecast encompassing regressions. However, when we apply a simple betting strategy using point forecasts from the model, there are no substantial or consistent financial returns to be made over the two seasons. In other words, there is no evidence from this particular statistical model that the result, scoreline, margin of victory or total goals betting markets are on average inefficient.

Additional Information	JEL Codes: C53; G14; G17; L83
Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/89738
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Arts, Humanities and Social Science > School of Politics, Economics and International Relations > Economics
Uncontrolled Keywords	Forecasting; Statistical modelling; Regression models; Prediction markets
Additional Information	JEL Codes: C53; G14; G17; L83
Publisher	Economic Issues / Sarum Editorial Services
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