The information content of short-term options

Oikonomou, I., Stancu, A., Symeonidis, L. and Wese Simen, C. (2019) The information content of short-term options. Journal of Financial Markets, 46. 100504. ISSN 1386-4181 doi: 10.1016/j.finmar.2019.07.003

Abstract/Summary

We exploit weekly options on the S&P 500 index to compute the weekly implied variance. We show that the weekly implied variance is a strong predictor of the weekly realized variance. In an encompassing regression test, it crowds out the information content of the monthly implied variance. Further tests reveal that the weekly implied variance outperforms not only the monthly implied variance but also well-established time series models of realized variance. This result holds both in- and out-of-sample and the forecast accuracy gains are significant.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/85398
Identification Number/DOI	10.1016/j.finmar.2019.07.003
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Henley Business School > Finance and Accounting
Uncontrolled Keywords	Implied variance; Predictability; Realized variance; Weekly options
Publisher	Elsevier
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