Interpretations of the Paris climate target

Schurer, A. P., Cowtan, K., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Mann, M. E., Scott, V. and Tett, S. F. B. (2018) Interpretations of the Paris climate target. Nature Geoscience, 11. pp. 220-221. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: 10.1038/s41561-018-0086-8

Abstract/Summary

In the 2015 UNFCCC Paris Agreement, article 2 expresses the target of “Holding the increase in global temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C … recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”1. Different interpretations of the precise meaning of the phrases ‘increase in global temperature’2 and ‘pre-industrial’3 could have large effects on mitigation requirements and corresponding social, policy and political responses. Here we suggest that levels of current global mean surface warming since pre-industrial times that are higher than those derived by Millar et al. could have been calculated using alternative, but equally valid, assumptions as the ones made by those authors.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/80791
Identification Number/DOI	10.1038/s41561-018-0086-8
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Nature Publishing Group
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