Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

Jewson, S., Ambaum, M. H. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6824-8083 and Ziehmann, C. (2004) Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty. arXiv (0402027). doi: arXiv:physics/0402027v1

Abstract/Summary

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/7702
Item Type	Article
Refereed	No
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Cornell University Library
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