Identifying causes of Western Pacific ITCZ drift in ECMWF System 4 hindcasts

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Shonk, J. K. .P., Guilyardi, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2255-8625, Toniazzo, T., Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 and Stockdale, T. (2018) Identifying causes of Western Pacific ITCZ drift in ECMWF System 4 hindcasts. Climate Dynamics, 50 (3-4). pp. 939-954. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3650-9

Abstract/Summary

The development of systematic biases in climate models used in operational seasonal forecasting adversely affects the quality of forecasts they produce. In this study, we examine the initial evolution of systematic biases in the ECMWF System 4 forecast model, and isolate aspects of the model simulations that lead to the development of these biases. We focus on the tendency of the simulated intertropical convergence zone in the western equatorial Pacific to drift northwards by between 0.5° and 3° of latitude depending on season. Comparing observations with both fully coupled atmosphere–ocean hindcasts and atmosphere-only hindcasts (driven by observed sea-surface temperatures), we show that the northward drift is caused by a cooling of the sea-surface temperature on the Equator. The cooling is associated with anomalous easterly wind stress and excessive evaporation during the first twenty days of hindcast, both of which occur whether air-sea interactions are permitted or not. The easterly wind bias develops immediately after initialisation throughout the lower troposphere; a westerly bias develops in the upper troposphere after about ten days of hindcast. At this point, the baroclinic structure of the wind bias suggests coupling with errors in convective heating, although the initial wind bias is barotropic in structure and appears to have an alternative origin.

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Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/69818
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Uncontrolled Keywords	Seasonal forecasting, model drift, western Pacific, ITCZ.
Publisher	Springer
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Date Deposited:	23 Mar 2017 08:05	Date item deposited into CentAUR
Last Modified:	30 Aug 2024 13:16	Date item last modified

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