Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

Good, P., Booth, B. B. B., Chadwick, R., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Jonko, A. and Lowe, J. A. (2016) Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming. Nature Communications, 7. 13667. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: 10.1038/ncomms13667

Abstract/Summary

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/68461
Identification Number/DOI	10.1038/ncomms13667
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Nature Publishing Group
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