The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project

Arnell, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436 (2016) The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project. Climatic Change, 134 (3). pp. 343-352. ISSN 1573-1480 doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1600-x

Abstract/Summary

This paper introduces the special issue of Climatic Change on the QUEST-GSI project, a global-scale multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change. The project used multiple climate models to characterise plausible climate futures with consistent baseline climate and socio-economic data and consistent assumptions, together with a suite of global-scale sectoral impacts models. It estimated impacts across sectors under specific SRES emissions scenarios, and also constructed functions relating impact to change in global mean surface temperature. This paper summarises the objectives of the project and its overall methodology, outlines how the project approach has been used in subsequent policy-relevant assessments of future climate change under different emissions futures, and summarises the general lessons learnt in the project about model validation and the presentation of multi-sector, multi-region impact assessments and their associated uncertainties to different audiences.