Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

Séférian, R., Bopp, L., Gehlen, M., Swingedouw, D., Mignot, J., Guilyardi, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2255-8625 and Servonnat, J. (2014) Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111 (32). pp. 11646-11651. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: 10.1073/pnas.1315855111

Abstract/Summary

Phytoplankton is at the base of the marine food web. Its carbon fixation, the net primary productivity (NPP), sustains most living marine resources. In regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), natural fluctuations of NPP have large impacts on marine ecosystems including fisheries. The capacity to predict these natural variations would provide an important asset to science-based management approaches but remains unexplored yet. In this paper, we demonstrate that natural variations of NPP in the tropical Pacific can be forecasted several years in advance beyond the physical environment, whereas those of sea surface temperature are limited to 1 y. These results open previously unidentified perspectives for the future development of science-based management techniques of marine ecosystems based on multiyear forecasts of NPP.