Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa

Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2015) Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (19). pp. 8155-8164. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2015GL065765

Abstract/Summary

Multiple observational data sets and atmosphere-only simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are analyzed to characterize recent rainfall variability and trends over Africa focusing on 1983–2010. Data sets exhibiting spurious variability, linked in part to a reduction in rain gauge density, were identified. The remaining observations display coherent increases in annual Sahel rainfall (29 to 43 mm yr−1 per decade), decreases in March–May East African rainfall (−14 to −65 mm yr−1 per decade), and increases in annual Southern Africa rainfall (32 to 41 mm yr−1 per decade). However, Central Africa annual rainfall trends vary in sign (−10 to +39 mm yr−1 per decade). For Southern Africa, observed and sea surface temperature (SST)-forced model simulated rainfall variability are significantly correlated (r~0.5) and linked to SST patterns associated with recent strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/48739
Identification Number/DOI	10.1002/2015GL065765
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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